...with a not so obvious answer.
It seems extremely likely that we are looking at a very strong hand, given this is this player's first hand to raise and he's doing so from UTG (though it's worth noting that position might not matter so much with this particular player type.) Based on the info, the range may be as small as AA/KK - I'm not even sure this player type has AKs in this spot. I think 3-betting is out of the question - we are almost certainly getting 4-bet, and possibly jammed on. The good news is, with the stack sizes in play we have a pretty reasonable chance of winning a sizable pot on the right board, so the implied odds are pretty good here. I'm calling most of the time given that information. I don't think a fold is terrible either, but that is pretty nitty being in position for such a cheap price.
Call, and fold post flop if we can't beat his aces or kings.
Hi Mark, I just found your substack! And what a great question!
Context: I'm an online player with all five months of experience. I just figured out how to beat 1c 2c, and now I'm working on how to beat the three betting in the 2c 5c. 6MAX cash 100b - I've never played a cash game with nine players. I hone my skills in the Zoom room. I get 3 - 5 hours in every day. I intend to join the Asian Poker Tour and play live in the future.
First off, who is asking the question—who is Mark?
Hmmm... (in my head) this human knows how to communicate instructions.
And we get these AS BIG AS THEY COME CLUES:
"With a not-so-obvious answer."
“Slow down, you move too fast…”
Hmmm, if I am to sharpen situational awareness, then it's more likely the engineer/project manager/human asking the question did not randomly pick the sub-header and the quote.
So, if I was to flip the question and start asking: "What are the obvious answers here? " Then I can rule them out.
Next, wtf do I know about suited connectors? - No much. I usually fold them. The $2NL is way above my current physical world skill level.
Suited connectors, let's do this in real-time (having read the other comments about price)
I need more immediate value to me. If I want to play, I have to be able to get in for cheap. So many things have to happen, position and price.
The pot size is $9. I'm being asked to put in $6 to win $9. 2/3 or 5:2 or 28% ev — as we are pre-flop if I put him on a pair then currently villian is 80/20 against my 78s.
Let's break the situation down further:
"Imagine that we’re playing in a 9-handed $1/$2 Texas Hold’em cash game at a local casino. It’s mid-morning on a weekday, and the table is populated with middle-aged and elderly players. Most of these players are men who seem to be killing time with cash play until the daily noon knock-out tournament starts. "
Sounds like a social gathering to get the brain working before the tournament. If this is a stepping stone game then most people would want a neutral or winning outcome, but likely not losing and may play a tighter game so as not to rock the boat before the lunch time action begins.
"The stack sizes vary between 50bb and 150bb. The play has been relatively tight and passive. The standard opening bet sizing that we’ve observed is 3x the big blind, but more often than not, players are limp-opening their hands."
Villian has bet 3 x BB instead of limp-opening. He is indicating he has a hand.
"The primary villain in this hand is an elderly gentleman who is dressed conservatively, including a thin gold wedding ring and an old Timex watch with a worn leather strap. He appears to be a typical “OMC,” or Old Man Coffee, meaning an elderly player who is likely on a fixed income and is playing poker more for social interaction than as a serious pursuit. True to stereotype, he is nursing a second free cup of coffee that was just brought to him by a table server. He has been chatting amiably about the weather and sports with a couple of other OMCs, most of whom seem to know him by name, as does the dealer."
Conservative dress, old Timex watch with a worn leather strap. This guy has a preference for practicality and functionality. It would be with significant consideration he'd change that leather strap for a new leather strap. I don't think his player plays with his gut. he enjoys the logic and reasoning and information he can see.
More of a social event means he is less likely to be a killer and probably fold out if he feels his stack is threatened.
"We’ve been at the table for about an hour, and the villain has played only three hands in that entire period. In two of the hands, he called behind in late position to an open-limper, then folded on the flop after apparently missing his draws."
"On the third hand (which he also limped in preflop) he led into a low, wet and connected flop, and then check-called down when his opponent didn’t fold. He then folded his losing hand of Jacks face-up on the river, complaining audibly that he never wins with “damn fishhooks.” "
The answer to the question is found in this paragraph. He's not aggressive with his betting. He was right to bet on the low, wet, connected flop, but there is a mistake in the check-called down. But I'm not sure what the right play was.
(Which, of course, spurred a series of jokes from the other players about losing with Jacks.) Based on these factors, we classify the villain as a tight, passive, somewhat unimaginative player who can get married to an over-pair, regardless of board texture.
^^^ raw data ^^^
"A few hands later, the OMC villain is first to act under-the-gun. He currently has around 110bb in his stack. He open-raises to $6. Before he bet, however, we noticed he glanced briefly down at his chip stack. He also stopped chatting with his neighbor, and seems a little anxious as he waits for the rest of the players to act."
He is holding a high pair like Q Q - which is making him sweat more as he will feel shit-out of luck if the flop drops, Kc Tc 3s
All the other players fold to us. We’re on the button and look down at 7c-8c. We have a 120bb stack. The player in the big blind, two seats to our left, folds out of turn. The only other player remaining to act in the hand (i.e., the small blind) already seems poised to toss his hand into the muck pile.
Before we decided what to do, we ask the OMC how much they have behind in their stack. The villain starts to answer, but then shuts up abruptly mid-sentence and doesn’t finish his reply. The action is on us.
What to do.
Call his bet of $6 and see a flop. I've got position so he has to act first after the flop. If the flop is something like Kc Tc 3s, then he checks, and so do I as I have 9 flush outs. 8 outs on the OESD. ~ 17 outs 64% ev by the river to hit a hand that beats his high pair.
Call. We have position and a player that will be sticky with an over pair. Meaning we can likely win a big pot if we make a hand that can beat an over pair.
Fun spot against UTG OMC raiser. A lot of OMCs, especially UTG, will size up their raises with their biggest hands. They don't want a cascade of callers, making it hard to know where they stand post-flop with JJ+ multi-ways OOP. That's the key question... is his standard sized raise actually a bet-sizing tell? If he's essentially setting his own set-mining odds with hands like 66-JJ, we can exploit with a 3-bet / C-bet line. If he's always consistent in his pre-flop sizing, all we can do is call and play fit-or-fold post flop.