Postflop Betting via the Pot vs. Fold Equity Grid

When EV is Zero or Less, Fold!

Following up on the last few Continuation Betting articles and video I did (click here and here to see them), I took a little time this week to create a spreadsheet that charts Pot Equity (PE) vs. Fold Equity (FE). This chart clearly demonstrates the negative EV check/fold zone in the lower left-hand corner of the grid:

The Expected Value (EV) of betting into an opponent = EV = (FE x Pot) + [(1-FE) x ((PE x (Pot + Bet)– ((1-PE) x Bet))], where FE = Fold Equity, Pot = Pot Size before betting, and PE = Pot Equity. This particular chart is for a pot size of $100 and a Hero bet of $75.

Note that, while I developed this grid to explain when to continuation bet on the flop, the chart can be used in any betting or raising situation in poker. We should primarily be betting or raising for value (i.e., we have high pot equity and believe we can get our opponent to call with worse hands) or as bluffs (i.e., we have high fold equity and believe we can get our opponent to fold better hands). We can also bet as a combination of these two things; i.e., we’re in the middle of the chart and are semi-bluffing with medium strength/medium fold-equity hands. Remember: every decision you make at the poker tables should be ultimately traceable back to whether the action you’re pondering is positive EV or negative EV. If it’s positive, do it. If it ain’t, don’t. There’s no reason to make poker harder than this, folks!


Exceptional Poker — Learn. Master. Crush.

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