Dumb Poker Luck

Learning to ignore short-term variance--and focus on long-term skill instead

”I say luck is when an opportunity comes along and you’re prepared for it.” – Denzel Washington

The word “luck” is thrown around a lot at the poker tables. Just the other day, a friend of mine lost four buy-ins in a high-dollar cash game and bemoaned his luck in an email to me. “Mark, everyone is luckier than me. I never win. I’m cursed with bad luck.” When I pushed back on this statement, my friend got angry with me, accusing me of “not understanding what it’s like to have bad luck.” He claimed that my win rates are nothing more than “dumb luck.”

Uh, sure. Keep thinking—and acting—that way, I told him, and you’re going to stay unlucky. You’re going to stay “dumb” forever.

There are a lot of quotes like Denzel Washington’s above that come from successful people. More importantly, you never read quotes about these folks having bad luck. In writing about business success, entrepreneur Jack Canfield famously said, “I believe that people make their own luck by great preparation and good strategy.” And you know what? These words are just as applicable to poker, too. Let me explain…

Quiz: Two Pair in a Deep Stack Game Facing Strong River Aggression

Donkey Test Question #21

Question:

You are in a $5/$10 no-limit cash game that is 7-handed. You are loose, passive, and you generally play badly. You and the tight player in the BB both have $3000 stacks. It is folded to you on the button, where you hold As-6s. You make a standard $40 raise and the BB calls. The flop is Ac-6d-Jh. The BB leads out for $80. You call. The turn is the 7s. The BB bets $200 and you raise to $400. The BB re-raises to $800. You call. The river is the 2s. The BB moves all-in for his last $1900. What should you do?

  1. Fold
  2. Call

Focusing on EV [Expected Value] is the single most important difference between an advantage gambler and a recreational gambler; and is even more important than experience or mastery of specific poker skills.” –Collin Moshman & Douglas Zare The Math of Holdem

Winning, Losing, and/or Learning. Pick Two.

Learning to learn from your mistakes at the tables

Poker is chockfull of bad beats, coolers, and variance. This happens to you, it happens to me, it happens to everyone. I don’t care if your name is Danny Negreanu or Danny Nobody—you will lose hands. Lots and lots of hands.

Separating actual bad play and decisions (that you control) from just the variance of the game (that you can’t control) can be challenging for a new player. But it’s something you need to work on. You can lose and whine, or you can lose and learn. Let me explain…

New Year’s Resolutions

SMART Goals = SMARTer Habits

Are you better off now than you were twelve months ago? Did you achieve everything you intended to in 2017? Anything you intended? In life, love, work… and poker? If not, why not? 

One probable answer to falling short of last year’s New Years goals is simply due to the fact that you’re not SMART. Or more accurately, you’re not S.M.A.R.T. At least not in the right way. And, no, this is not one of those generic Specific, Measurable, Achievable Blah-Blah-Blah SMART blog posts. Well, sorta. Uh, let me explain…

Getting Divorced

Folding Aces is sometimes the best play

There’s usually only one moment in a Hold’em hand when A-A is the nuts, and that’s preflop. After the three flop cards are dealt, and unless you hit top set or better on a dry and disconnected board, your pocket rockets are rarely the best possible hand anymore. Accept this fact now and be willing to fold. Don’t get married to big pairs postflop. Be willing to get divorced. Think of the children.

Out-Level the Villain—Not Yourself

The concept of leveling, and how it applies to hand reading

[Note: this is an excerpt from my upcoming book on poker hand reading.]

“When the opponent expands, I contract; and when he contracts, I expand.” —Bruce Lee

Most good poker players understand the adage that to win at poker you have to “play the player” and not just your own cards. They also understand that you can’t bluff a bad player.

To make another player fold a better hand than yours, the villain first has to be aware that they might be beaten. This means that they actually have to be putting you on a hand range themselves, or they will be oblivious to your bluff and can/will blithely call you down with weak made hands. This is why value betting is so important at the low-stakes games; the opponents at these stakes are typically playing only the absolute strength of their own cards, and are unaware of what cards their opponents are holding. Trying to convince them that they’re beaten with a bluff bet is usually fruitless—and costly.

The same type of logic applies to hand reading.

There is no need for you to worry about what hand range a villain is putting us on, or how that might affect his or her play (and therefore their range) if that villain is not actually hand reading themselves. In fact, it’s counterproductive to do so. Let’s see why this is so…

Just Move Along

Don’t Regret Not Getting Better At Poker

“There are two types of pain you will suffer in life: the pain of discipline and the pain of regret. Discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tonnes.” —Jim Rohn

This quote resonates with me for a number of reasons. It’s applicable to many aspects of life, including health, work, relationships— and of course poker. I was reminded of this fact a while ago when I heard from an old poker-playing friend whom I hadn’t spoken to in months. My friend sent an email congratulating me on something I had done in my career that was big and noteworthy. But then my friend went on about his own “plans” for the future. I had inspired him, he said, and now he was going to do something with his own life.

Sounds good, right? 

I wish. Let me explain…